Step by Step Process to Replace Biden
Step-by-Step Process for Democrats to Replace Biden as their Presidential Candidate
Epiphany and Realization
Catalyst: After a critical 90-minute debate performance by President Biden, Democratic leaders realized the urgent need for a change in their presidential candidate. Prominent sources, such as the New York Times, have labeled Biden's candidacy a 'reckless gamble,' indicating widespread concern within the party about the viability of his re-election campaign.
Initiating the Process
Candidacy Risk: Democratic leaders are increasingly worried about the risk of losing the presidency to Trump, especially in light of Biden's debate performance. There is a consensus that immediate action is necessary to preserve their chances in the upcoming election.
Pre-Nomination Period
Window of Opportunity: President Biden has not yet been officially nominated, providing a crucial window for change. The formal nomination is scheduled for the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago in August, allowing time for strategic decisions.
Private Discussions and Defections
Private Conversations: Key Democratic figures, such as Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Nancy Pelosi, may privately approach Biden, urging him to withdraw his candidacy. They may suggest that if he does not step down voluntarily, they could publicly withdraw their support or leak the discussion.
Biden's Withdrawal
Voluntary Withdrawal: Should Biden agree to withdraw, it would set the stage for selecting a new candidate. His decision to step aside before the official nomination enables the DNC to initiate the replacement process efficiently.
Nominee Selection Mechanism
Free-for-All Competition: Once Biden steps aside, potential candidates would engage in a competitive phase, vying for the nomination. Candidates must secure signatures from at least 600 convention delegates to be officially nominated. The 2024 convention is expected to have 4,672 delegates, including 3,933 pledged delegates and 739 superdelegates (source: Ballotpedia).
Brokered Convention
No Clear Majority: If no candidate secures a majority of delegate votes in the initial round, the convention would transition to a brokered state. In this scenario, delegates act as free agents, negotiating with party leaders to select a nominee.
Roll Call Votes and Negotiations
Establishing Rules: The DNC would establish specific rules for the brokered convention, including roll call votes for the nominated candidates. This structured approach ensures transparency and systematic decision-making.
Multiple Voting Rounds: It may take several rounds of voting for one candidate to secure a majority. Each round involves negotiations and coalition-building among delegates and party leaders.
Historical Context
Past Precedent: The last brokered convention for the Democrats occurred in 1952, highlighting the rarity but possibility of such an event. This historical context underscores the complexity and significance of the process.
Conclusion
Final Nominee: Ultimately, through multiple voting rounds and strategic negotiations, a new nominee would emerge with majority support from the delegates. This candidate would then be positioned to lead the Democratic Party in the general election against the Republican contender.
By following this structured process, the Democratic Party aims to ensure a strategically advantageous selection of their presidential candidate, aligning with the goal of retaining the White House.
APPROVAL RATING BEFORE THE DEBATE
